WCP3044

[1]

King's College, Cambridge

Friday March 21st 1890.

Dear Sir

In the MS of the article from the British Medical Journal August 29, 1885, there is one more slight mistake I have to notice. In the passage

"The only difference as regards small-pox between the armies consisted in this," etc.

the word "consisted" was omitted.

I am very anxious to give you every assistance in this matter. If you would like to go to the British Museum and verify the quotation, you will I suppose find the British Medical Journal under "Periodical Publications" in the Catalogue. The article in the number for August 29, 1885 [2] is on pp 408-409, and is followed by diagrams and statistics extending to page 411 inclusive. I hope that M^r Tebb¹ sent you my comments on the article. The reference to cities appears to add nothing whatsoever to the argument of the article, as there is no evidence that vaccination was enforced with exceptional stringency in the German cities. It is a pity that there is not a stronger protest against this gross abuse of inductive [?] by arbitrary selections. Leicester and Keighley have since 1874 been as free from small pox as any German city could be; but the selection of those would spoil the lesson which the report is intended to teach. To argue that because Melbourne is more populous than Reykiavik [sic], and Sydney than Hammerfest, therefore the Southern Hemisphere is much more populous than the Northern, [3] would be quite as rational and conclusive as a [?] [?] that passes for argument on behalf of the efficacy of vaccination. That vaccination is efficacious enough in ridding the country of some of its superfluous population there is unfortunately not much room to doubt.

As regards the book from which Daniel Bernoulli's² paper is taken, it is called "Histoire de l'Academie Royal des Sciences ANNEE M.DCCLX avec les Mémoires de Mathématique et de Physique, pour la meme Année, tirés de Registres de cette Académie A Paris, de la'Imprimerie Royale MDCCLXVI". Thus you will see that the proceedings are those of 1760 but the date of publication is 1766. The analysis of D. Bernoulli's paper is on pp 99-107 of the Histoire [4] The Histoire extends over 202 pages, and then the paging begins afresh, and the paper of Bernoulli extends for pages 1-45 of the Mémoires. Pages 44 and 45 consist of tables. It is not at all unlikely that Bernoulli's writing might be found separately in the British Museum. A reference to these investigations of Daniel Bernoulli will be found in Todhunter's³ History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability ed. 1865 pp 224-228, article 400-407.

I enclose an extract from p 100 of the "Histoire" for 1760.

I am yrs very truly | H. N. Mozley [signature]⁴